Meeting the revised Effort Sharing Regulation target in Romania. Measures for the buildings and transport sectors

The European Union has almost completed its recalibration of targets and measures for 2030 to align them with the goal of climate neutrality by mid-century. Important changes have been made through the Fit-for-55 legislative package to essential EU energy and climate files, including the Energy Efficiency Directive, the Renewable Energy Directive, the Emissions Trading System Directive, and the Effort Sharing Regulation. The revised levels of ambition are now moving to the implementation stages, which may pose some challenges in some Member States. Targets for Romania are assessed in this paper using 2050 Pathways Explorer, a specialised modelling tool.

Romania has one of the lowest targets under the revised Effort Sharing Regulation (-12.7% GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2005) but given the relative neglect of the covered sectors over the past years, there will be distinct challenges for implementation, particularly in the buildings and transport sectors. At the very least, Romania should achieve its goal without overusing the available flexibility tools.

The scope and speed of renovations will have to be the main focus of the building sector’s efforts. Romania may reduce its building-related emissions by 29% in 2030 compared to 2005 (and by 33% compared to 2020), depending on how aggressively it pursues this goal. A Fit-for-55 compatible scenario estimates that Romania’s rate of residential building rehabilitation needs to be 2%/year, compared to the 1.5%/year baseline pace. Up until 2030, Romania ought to renovate almost 66 million square meters of habitable space in residential buildings annually and become a leader in the field of energy-efficient new construction, with deep energy efficiency a feature of half of new buildings. By then, the percentage of energy used for space heating with heat pumps should increase to 6.84% of total energy consumption. Romania should achieve a 3% yearly non-residential building renovation rate and, to further reduce the total energy consumption for space heating, it should significantly improve building codes. Lastly, a comprehensive strategy for Romania’s construction sector should consider the pressing needs to solve the skills deficit in the industry and to tame the price increase of building materials.

Romanian electricity consumption in transports is expected to rise by more than four times by 2030 compared to 2020. About one-third of the country’s automobile fleet in 2030 should be full-electric (or hybrid equivalent in terms of electricity consumption), consuming a total of 3.25 TWh of electricity. All new cars sold in Romania should have zero emissions by 2035, and all new trucks by 2040. Additionally, rail transport would need to increase its energy efficiency by 16% compared to 2015. New internal combustion engine (ICE) buses will need to become 10% more energy-efficient than the new ones sold in 2015. New cars sold in 2030, both diesel and petrol, should be 14% more energy-efficient than the new ones entering the fleet in 2015. Romania should improve freight transportation efficiency such that new heavy-duty diesel trucks consume 13% less energy per km by 2030 compared to 2015. Should significant changes be made to the fleet of passenger and freight vehicles, Romania may achieve a 29% renewable energy sources (RES) share of the total energy consumed in transportation by 2030. In transport, Romania would greatly benefit from aggregating its policies under the umbrella of a comprehensive short and mid-term national strategy.

costin postoiu - epg
Constantin Postoiu, EPG Head of Data Analytics

Constantin is the Head of Data Analytics at EPG. He holds a PhD in Regional Development and a Master Degree in European Economics, both from Bucharest University of Economic Studies. From 2015 to 2017 he worked as advisor to the Chancellery of Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos where he led data driven policies and advised on education, poverty and public administration reform. Prior, he was a trainee at the EU Committee of the Regions, Europe 2020 Monitoring Platform.

Passionate about data analysis and data-based policies, he is also a member of the Advisory Council for the Evaluation of the Impact of Normative Acts, in the Romanian Government.

Contact: constantin.postoiu@enpg.ro

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