This paper undertakes a comprehensive examination of Romania’s first National Energy and Climate Plan (NECP) which was submitted to the European Commission in April 2020. The aim is to track the implementation progress and to assess the achievability of the outlined objectives based on recent data trends and modelling scenarios using the 2050 Pathways Explorer tool. The paper also takes reference to the revised objectives under the Fit for 55 package, especially for the buildings and transport sectors, with the aim of showing how current NECP implementation shortcomings may make the newer, more ambitious objectives even more difficult to reach.
Upon initial examination and especially compared to the new European objectives for 2030, the level of ambition articulated in the NECP appears relatively modest. Some of the targets either have already been met or closely mirror the projections outlined in a business-as-usual scenario. For example, Romania has already surpassed its NECP objectives for emissions under the Emissions Trading System (partly as a result of the energy crisis).
However, there are concerns regarding the ability to sufficiently curtail CO2 emissions particularly in the buildings and transport sectors. Romania, while experiencing recent growth rates in these sectors, still grapples with significant economic development disparities compared to the EU average, as overcoming those may inadvertently lead to increasing emissions. Public support mechanisms have yet to attain the necessary scale to stimulate substantial building renovations or drive widescale adoption of energy-efficient technologies. Meanwhile, the heightened EU ambitions for renewables in the heating sectors will require substantial and dedicated programmes for installing heat pumps and solar thermal panels.
Romania still faces gaps in meeting its renewable targets across the board, but particularly the new 2030 objectives for the transport sector. Increasing the RES-T share will be difficult as most currently used renewables come from first generation biofuels, while electric vehicle adoption is still slow. Notable strides were made in meeting targets for renewable electricity production, driven primarily by a surge in solar PV adoption, but further mobilisation of enabling measures for utility-scale renewables is needed.
Industry is given little attention in the NECP, with the only objectives focusing on relatively marginal energy savings by 2030. A drop in energy consumption in 2022 following the energy crisis has already led to a consumption level below the ambitions set in the NECP, but this is likely to rebound in coming years. Significant additional planning and measures are needed for meeting the revised expectations for industrial decarbonisation under the new objectives set through the Fit for 55 package.
When it comes to waste management, Romania aims to increase waste reuse and recycling rates, but lacks specific policies, strategies, and quantification of their effects on emissions. Current trajectories show that the NECP objectives are unlikely to be met. Romania still has the lowest quantity of municipal waste per capita in the EU, as waste generation will likely increase and further impede meeting the NECP goals.
Importantly, several issues with data accuracy and consistency affect any assessment of the NECP implementation progress. Such data shortcomings should be addressed in Romania’s revised NECP.
Constantin Postoiu, EPG Head of Data Analytics
Constantin is the Head of Data Analytics at EPG. He holds a PhD in Regional Development and a Master Degree in European Economics, both from Bucharest University of Economic Studies. From 2015 to 2017 he worked as advisor to the Chancellery of Prime Minister Dacian Ciolos where he led data driven policies and advised on education, poverty and public administration reform. Prior, he was a trainee at the EU Committee of the Regions, Europe 2020 Monitoring Platform.
Passionate about data analysis and data-based policies, he is also a member of the Advisory Council for the Evaluation of the Impact of Normative Acts, in the Romanian Government.
Contact: constantin.postoiu@enpg.ro